On 17 April, the elections for the National Parliament of the Solomon Islands took place. Thirteen political parties and 115 independent candidates contested for the 50 seats of unicameral legislature. Externally, the US, China, and Australia were keenly watching the electoral process as the counting of the votes continues.

Who are the main contestants? 
First, the Ownership, Unity, Responsibility (OUR) Party, under PM Sogovare’s leadership. He has formed an alliance, the Democratic Coalition Governance for Advancement (DCGA), which includes the Kadere Party and some independent candidates. The party’s main agenda focuses on socio-economic growth and infrastructure development. The party intends to expand ties with China under the country’s “look north” policy and China against Taiwan. 

Second, the Solomon Islands Democratic Party (SIDP), which was the opposition party led by Matthew Wale. It’s manifesto focused on job creation, infrastructure investment, implementing free education, decreasing the cost of living, and creating 25,000 jobs over four years. SIDP aims to reinstate diplomatic relations with Taiwan. SIDP leads an alliance Coalition for Accountability, Reform and Empowerment (CARE), with former Prime Minister Rick Houenipwela of the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP).

What are the primary concerns?
First, the sliding democratic credentials in the Solomon Islands. This was evident with the election of PM Sogovare in 2019, which led to a significant change in the country’s internal and external politics. This was prevalent in the 2019 elections as the MPs used Constituency Development Funds to buy votes. Also, the Solomon Islands Electoral Commission (SIEC), which was placed under the jurisdiction of the Home Affairs Ministry, was later shifted to the prime minister’s office in 2020, affecting the overall credibility of the electoral process. As per the Freedom House Report 2023, the Solomon Islands ranked 76th out of 100 countries.

Second, public dissatisfaction with rampant corruption is a major issue in the Solomon Islands, as vote buyouts and the influence of external actors, especially China, have heavily influenced the top political leadership. This has affected the governance process, including media freedom. The already established measures, such as the Anti-Corruption Act and Independent Commission Against Corruption, have remained muted despite rampant corruption. The fears of the 2021 riots in the capital, Honiara, persisted when protestors attempted to burn down the prime minister's home. The protestors were angry against the growing corruption within the political class and the non-action to address poverty.

Third, poor economic governance. One of the main concerns for the Solomon Islanders is the inability of the current ruling government to provide equitable and affordable social services like health, education, and rural development. The negative implications of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to pose risks to the economy. According to the World Bank Report 2024, poor infrastructure, widespread underemployment, and a limited private sector pose significant growth challenges. World Bank phone survey data indicates that food insecurity remains a key issue as 61 per cent of the population is considered poor based upon the lower-middle-income poverty line. The upcoming general elections in 2024 may increase economic uncertainty and increase the risk of unrest within the country.

What are the external interests?
For China, economic and security interests drive its relationship with the Solomon Islands. China’s deepening ties with the Solomon Islands correlate to its slowing economy, which is currently facing a severe property sector crisis, local government debts, growing unemployment, and weak consumer demand. China’s dependence on natural resources is critical for its productivity and growth as it imports the majority of timber from the Solomon Islands. Furthermore, China intends to protect its vast investments in the infrastructure sector from public riots using the security pact. For China, the increased bilateral relations with the Solomon Islands are driven by its vulnerability in the region rather than by a Chinese grand strategy. The civil unrest and deteriorating relationship with the US and its allies in the region motivate Beijing to protect its overseas interests.

For the US, the entire South Pacific is considered part of an “American Lake,” declared by former US President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954. The US has larger security and commercial interests in the region. The US fears that China’s use of social stability by stationing Chinese police will hurt the democratic process in the Solomon Islands. The US is also concerned with the growing Chinese investments and financial aid in the region through its Five-Year Action Plan on Common Development. Washington sees these actions as a debt trap, which makes the host country surrender its strategic assets to China on lease. Furthermore, the snapping of diplomatic ties with Taiwan puts the Solomon Islands into China’s orbit, thus reducing the influence of the US and its liberal values in the country.

For Australia, the increasing Chinese naval presence in the Pacific is a major security concern as the Solomon Islands are located close to its North Queensland coast. The presence of Chinese police personnel due to the security pact threatens Australia's interests in the Solomon Islands. China’s potential naval base in the country will threaten Australia as it would alter the balance of power in the vital shipping lane in the South Pacific.

References:
Erin Hale, “Solomon Islands prepares for ‘most important election since independence’,” Al Jazeera, 16 April 2024
Kristy Needham, “Solomon Islands' pro-China PM retains seat as election count continues,” Reuters, 19 April 2024
Frances Mao, “Solomon Islands: The Pacific election being closely watched by China and the West,” BBC, 20 April 2024
Meg Keen and Oliver Nobetau, “Solomon Islands: Democracy on the ballot,” Lowy Institute, 10 April 2024
Kathryn Paik, “The Solomon Islands Heads to the Polls: Sogavare, Democracy, and Great Power Competition,” CSIS, 9 April 2024
Richard Wood, “Solomon Islands election: Plenty at stake for Australia and the Pacific,” 9News, 17 April 2024
Anna Powles, “Geopolitical duel in the Pacific: Solomon Islands security at risk as Australia and China compete,” Lowy Institute, 7 July 2023
Catherine Wilson, “How the Solomon Islands became a flashpoint for US-China rivalry,” Responsible Statecraft, 31 July 2023